Global Events Magazine
May 16, 2005
at, W. Joseph Stroupe, Editor in chief
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An ancient, perceptive Greek proverb states, "The scene of this world is changing". Like the scenes of an ongoing play, global developments, both past and present, form a coherent picture that can be clearly discerned by careful, objective observation and analysis. This method of analysis and forecasting, developed to its fullest extent right here at Global Events Magazine and employed in every article, is enjoying unprecedented success as measured by the unequaled accuracy of its analysis and forecasting. By subscribing to Global Events Magazine you will find ongoing, reliable and authoritative economic and geopolitical insight found nowhere else. Recent global developments in the spheres of energy, the economy and international relations demonstrate the preeminence of geopolitics, and the pressing need for a clearer and more coherent "picture" of how geopolitics governs the world. These are the valuable insights you'll find here.

Putin's Two-Track Game v. Bush's One-Track Mind

Bolton at the UN: U.S. Seeks to Re-subjugate U.N. or Silence Its Voice

U.N. Carries Great Worth if an Instrument of U.S. Foreign Policy, Great Risks if Not

The Neo Cold War Heats Up

Are Apparent U.S. Advances Real or Illusory?

U.S. Energy Security Caught In A Web

What Does The Web Look Like?

Could It Happen In Russia?

Is Russia Susceptible to Another Ideologically-Induced "Regime Change"?

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Snippets from Part VI of the Series on Russian-American Relations:

The Metallic Kingdoms
vs The Amalgam Kingdom - Part VI

Who Will Win The Neo Cold War?

Featured Geopolitical Cartoon

New Feature - Quick Insights on Global Developments You Should

Keep Watching!

Does the Fed Believe Its Own Spin?

Central Banks Abandon Dollar Buying

U.S. Losing South Korea

U.S. Economy at Leading Edge of Solemn Danger as Consumers Fatigue

A New Pope and a New Geopolitical Activism

The Strategy of the Central Banker

Bush’s Game of Checkers No Match for Russian-Style Chess

The U.S. Risks an Economic and Geopolitical Checkmate if it Pushes Russia Too Far

Clear Shift in Asian Central Bank Policy

Black Gold Still Ruling as King

The Metallic Kingdoms vs. the Amalgam Kingdom:
Who Will Win the Neo Cold War?

Read Part VI in the Authoritative Series on American-Russian Relations

Read the New Authoritative Series on American-Russian Relations

What is Happening to the Glue of the U.S.-Centric
Global Economic Order?

What are the Implications of Recent Developments Regarding the Dollar and How Can You Make Sense of Them?

Is Comparatively Flea-sized Bin Laden Succeeding in his Threat to "Bleed America Into Bankruptcy"?

Global Events Magazine gets it right -
Far ahead of the rest!

Faulted Analysis Offered Elsewhere

Authoritative Analysis and Reliable Forecasting Found Only Here

High crude oil prices are only a temporary phenomenon
The world has already entered an entirely new era where black gold rules as king and prices will remain at elevated levels
High energy prices will only minimally affect the economy, if at all
High energy prices will slow growth, stall the recovery, keep the dollar in decline, cause gold to rise and spur inflation (do not be deceived by the deceptively low 'cooked' numbers for inflation released by the government)
Russia is almost inconsequential as compared to the U.S.
Russia is already achieving a reacquisition of global power and influence, in concert with its strategic partners, primarily using its near-monopoly over energy resources as its lever to power
The U.N. is virtually finished
The U.N.S.C. is being cleverly and effectively empoyed by Russia and its strategic partners as an instrument to focus and project global influence and power, progressively isolating and weakening the U.S. on the world stage
Russia and the U.S. are partners - Russia will send up to 40,000 troops to help the U.S. in Iraq
Russia and the U.S. are fundamental geopolitical rivals, with each only making a public pretense of partnership. Russia plays an adroit two-track game, strategically outmaneuvering the U.S. at almost every turn. It will not send troops to help the U.S. in Iraq because an ongoing Iraqi quagmire for the U.S. suits Russia's geopolitical interests
The U.S. has unequaled global influence and power in virtually all spheres and cannot lose its position of global dominance any time soon
Due both to its own shortsighted policies and actions and also due to the collective maneuvering of Russia and its strategic partners, the U.S. has already suffered a deeply-significant loss of influence on the world stage in the diplomatic, moral, ideological, economic and military spheres. It has already lost its ability to lead within NATO, at the U.N., in the Middle East and Central Asia, and even among its own allies. The resulting rapidly growing power vacuum is providing unprecedented opportunity for its strategic geopolitical rivals to make a collective rise in a strategy of an insidious and progressive takeover of global dominance one region and sphere at a time
Saudi Arabia and OPEC are of prime importance with respect to crude oil
We forecast many months before it began to occur that Russia would become much more important than Saudi Arabia and the rest of OPEC as increasing Middle East and African instability makes Russian energy look very good by comparison. We also pointed out the powerful geopolitical and economic advantages those developments would bring to Russia
The so-called "anti-war bloc" will fracture, and so will the EU, leaving the U.S. virtually without serious geopolitical challengers
We have consistently forecast that Russia, China, France and Germany, at the core of the anti-war bloc, would hold together in their geopolitical opposition to U.S. global dominance. We also forecast they would gather others into their geopolitical camp and that the U.S. would become increasingly isolated internationally, with very serious repercussions in Iraq and elsewhere as a new Eurasian power center, with Russia at its very core, rapidly grows to offset U.S. global dominance
The dollar's decline is only limited and temporary
Long ago we accurately analyzed the dollar's troubles as both systemic and irreversable, and said the decline would be neither limited nor temporary
The idea of a Eurasian Strategic Alliance coming into existence is only a fanciful dream - the U.S. is too influential to permit that eventuality
We have consistently forecast that a true Eurasian alliance is currently being formed, involving the EU, Russia, China, India and others, in spite of, and to counterbalance, U.S. power. A major step forward was taken recently as the EU and India signed an important Strategic Treaty of Cooperation and Friendship. Developments along the path of a true Eurasian Alliance will only accelerate, in spite of the significant differences that still exist between Europe and Russia. The EU and Russia need each other, but because of Russia's vast energy resources the EU needs Russia the most. Those fundamentals will win out in their growing strategic relationship, to the significant exclusion of U.S. interests.
The World has entered an entirely new and meaningful era, unexpected and unforseen by most, but clearly forecast and analyzed here at Global Events Magazine. Now, geopolitics dominates, including in the financial and economic spheres. You cannot afford to be complacent about geopolitics. Global Events Magazine is your key to unlocking, ahead of time, all the repercussions and opportunities that are coming your way. Don't be left unprepared. Subscribe today!

Jun 23-2004

Religion's Deepening Involvement In National Politics and In Geopolitics - What Are The Likely Implications And Repercussions?

By W. Joseph Stroupe

Al Qaida and other radical Islamic fundamentalist terror groups, by threats, bombings and kidnappings, seek to influence the political decisions, the direction and even the elections of governments around the world. The president of the U.S. has sought to open the door to the elevation of the role of Christendom's religion in government and in the social sphere to levels not seen in many decades. As a direct result, the Catholic Church, in a pointed surge of political activism, has sought to exert its influence within politics in the approaching U.S. election, with some members of the hierarchy speaking out to deny communion to those who transgress against certain Church dogma, such as the prohibitions against abortion or stem cell research. Most recently, Catholic bishops in the U.S. have been allowed by the Church to freely decide the stand they will take on the issue of denying communion. In the drafting of a new EU constitution, the Vatican pointedly insisted that the document incorporate clear statements of the bloc's Christian heritage and thus make acknowledgement of the ongoing importance of Christendom's religion. When such language was dropped from the recently approved document, the Vatican expressed "deep regrets". In Russia, the Orthodox Church has become ever more activist in supporting and facilitating the Russian government's significant return to its more authoritarian roots. And last week the head of the Anglican Church proclaimed that the "moment" had arrived for the U.N. Security Council to permit a commission of religious heads to participate directly within the Security Council in order to guide its deliberations and decisions, so as to lend "moral authority" to the Council's decisions. What is really behind religion's deepening involvement in national politics and even in geopolitics? Will that deepening involvement provide needed solutions for the world's problems and thus be good news for our already troubled world, or does it portend the arising of even more strife and diminishing likelihood of achieving international peace and security? ...

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Nov 2-2004

Bin Laden to America: 'We'll Bleed You into Bankruptcy'

Can the Strategy Work? Is It Working Already?

November 2, 2004

By W. Joseph Stroupe

In his pre-election statement, Osama bin Laden bragged of bankrupting the Soviet Union by asymmetrical means in Afghanistan, clearly taking the major credit for the collapse of that superpower. While his efforts as an instrumentality of the U.S. obviously brought significant economic, military and geopolitical harm to the Soviet Union, and no doubt served as an important factor in its decline and eventual collapse, other more powerful factors were at play. Bin Laden deserves only a measure of credit at best. In making his most recent threat to 'do the same' to America, is he delusional, or can the strategy of asymmetrical economic warfare against America succeed? Is it already having measurable success?

It is not wise to simply dismiss the threat, taking refuge in the fact that al-Qaida is only flea-sized in comparison to the giant-sized America. In geopolitics and war, it isn't size alone that matters - identifying and effectively targeting the vulnerabilities of one's opponent matters equally, if not more, than size. Every giant does have at least one Achilles heel. So the real question here is whether or not Bin Laden has correctly identified America's Achilles heel and whether he possesses the ability to effectively attack it. Also important to consider is whether America can effectively shield its Achilles heel from attack. Is America immune to the asymmetric economic warfare currently being waged against it by Bin Laden? ...

Read the Authoritative New In-Depth Series on American-Russian Relations









The Chechnya and Iraq Quagmires: Clear Manifestations of American-Russian Geopolitical Rivalry - Part I

Read about the Great Game geoplitical strategies of America and Russia and see how each side actively employs terrorist proxies to weaken and frustrate the geopolitical goals of the other. See how both Chechnya and Iraq fit into the Great Game being played out between America and Russia.

The Weakening of Russia or the Weakening of America - Which Will It Be? - Part II

Read about the deeper strategies of both sides in the geopolitical game being played out between the two and see how differently each side reacts to the other's strategies. See who will be the likely winner based on which side already has the most effective strategies.

The Metallic Kingdoms vs The Amalgam Kingdom - Part III

Find out how an ancient geopolitical analogy credited to king Nebuchadnezzar I of Babylon accurately illustrates fundamental and unprecedented changes within the fabric of the international system at the dawn of the 20th century. See what those changes were, what impact they have had on the principle of empire, and how they affect relations between America and Russia to this very day.

The Metallic Kingdoms vs The Amalgam Kingdom - Part IV

See how the fundamental make-up of the Anglo-American 7th world power impacts on its ability to exercise global dominance, and whether the configuration of the international system will support the current unipolar world order.

The Metallic Kingdoms vs The Amalgam Kingdom - Part V

See how great powers which are modern-day fragments of the Roman Empire, in conjunction with the fundamental changes in the fabric of the international system since the dawn of the 20th century, are combining to drive the international system toward bipolarity. See all the repercussions of such a reconfiguration of the world order, which is even now in process.

The Metallic Kingdoms vs The Amalgam Kingdom - Part VI

Who Will Win The Neo Cold War?

See how a neo Cold War between America and Russia (along with its strategic partners) has already begun, and what the geopolitical and global economic implications are. Learn precisely what is the nature of the new ideological war between the two sides, and what role strategic energy resources plays in their renewed rivalry. See clearly which side will win this neo Cold War.

Nov 8-2004

Sustained High Crude Oil Prices: The Solvent Dissolving the Glue of the U.S.-Centric Global Economic Order

How the Sustained High Cost of Crude Oil is Forcing upon the Global Economic Order an Early Day of Reckoning for the Dollar

How Can You Make Sense of the Maze of Conflicting Economic Reporting, Analysis & Forecasting and Determine the True Direction of the U.S. and Global Economies?

November 8, 2004

By W. Joseph Stroupe

Recent economic reports on the effects of crude oil prices nearing $60 per barrel warn ominously of an array of unpleasant repercussions on the horizon - or even closer than that. Both global and U.S. economic growth have already been negatively impacted, and solid evidence of the spread of inflationary repercussions throughout all levels of the economy is accumulating. As we shall see, Washington not only has a vested interest in hiding the full truth about crude oil's influence on the economy, but it has also had the effective tools at its disposal to accomplish the desired psychological deception. Independent (non-government) analysts have warned that it isn't so much how high energy prices go, but rather how long they remain at elevated levels, that's so important. For example, $120 per barrel crude oil would be mostly inconsequential if that price spike lasted only a few weeks at most. Conversely, $45 to $50 per barrel crude oil for many months, or perhaps for a few years, will have a much greater negative impact on the economy. Along these lines it must be noted that for a considerable period of time already, crude oil prices have sustained at two to three times the $10 to $15 average of the 1990's. We have thus been in an extended period of elevated crude oil prices for nearly 5 years now. It is important to set aside the less important facts regarding the peak level of crude oil prices in favor of the more important facts relating to the now nearly 5-year longevity of elevated prices. And what is the effect upon the fundamental glue, namely the dollar itself, which holds together the current U.S.-centric global economic order? That glue, the confidence in, and the desirability of, the dollar, is already in an advanced stage of dissolution. And its breakdown under the influence of the sustained, corrosive price of crude oil, and also under the influence of the corrosive economic and foreign policies of the Bush administration, is even accelerating. What are the facts that substantiate that somber outlook? Why should you place credence and confidence in this analysis of U.S. and global developments when many other analyses present a conflicting view? Can the true and verifiable facts be ascertained to enable you to see clearly through the maze of confusion the full truth about the true direction of the U.S. and global economies? ...

When Greenspan Speaks, the Gullible Listen

Track Record Establishes Him As An Economic SpinMaster

October 16, 2004 (7:30 pm Eastern)
By W. Joseph Stroupe

Mr. Greenspan spoke confidently yesterday of the inherent strength and resilience of the U.S. economy in the face of sustained high oil prices, assuring his audience that the pain such prices are inflicting will be nothing akin to that inflicted during the 1970's. Oh yes, some businesses will fail and some jobs will be lost, he noted, but not to worry - all is fine. Stagflation (oil price-induced runaway inflation coupled with economic stagnation) ravaged the economy back then, but Mr. Greenspan's 'Don't worry - be happy' attitude would have one believe the risk of stagflation is very minimal today. How much credence do Mr. Greenspan's assurances deserve? Should you believe him? Let's take a brief look at his recent track record and let you determine the answers for yourself.

In the second quarter of this year he was forecasting a very rosy picture of U.S. and global economic growth, specifically stating that the elevated crude oil price (then in the mid to upper $30's per barrel) was a mere "transitory factor" that would not and could not appreciably affect the economic recovery, which, according to him, was inherently resilient to crude oil price shocks. His rosy forecast turned out to be unrealistically rosy, as the growth figures for the economy repeatedly had to be revised significantly downward since then. Creation of new jobs continues at only a disappointingly slow pace, while mortgage defaults and bankruptcies are on the rise. Inflationary pressures continue to build powerfully, though most persons wouldn't know it because, very conveniently, the Fed doesn't properly consider "volatile" and "transitory" factors (like energy prices) in its widely-reported "core" price inflation index, which still looks relatively calm - of course it does - that's the whole purpose of the index, to keep the two-thirds of the U.S. economy (you and me) calm, docile, malleable. The fact is that such "cooked books" indices won't show a pointed inflationary rise until inflationary pressures have become entirely out of control, when it will be far too late to do anything about them. Non-governmental analysts are reporting far higher rates of inflation. And the widely-recognized primary factor for such disappointing and even worrisome economic developments? Sustained high crude oil prices, which Mr. Greenspan assured us were only "a transitory factor"....

Featured Geopolitical Cartoon

"Black Gold Is Your King"

Apr 21-2004

The Inevitablity of a Eurasian Alliance

By W. Joseph Stroupe

On this planet, there exists only one nation which is truly Eurasian, and that nation is Russia. Covering eleven time zones, Russia extends from Europe on the west to the Asian Kuril Islands in the Sea of Okhotsk on the east. Western Russia is without a doubt European Russia. Central Russia is Central Asian Russia. And Eastern Russia is East Asian Russia. As such, geographically, culturally and economically, Russia exists as both the eastern half of Europe to make Europe complete, and as the top half of Asia, to make Asia complete. No other nation can lay claim to being thus truly Eurasian in nature. Hence, in the formation of any Eurasian Alliance, only Russia can play the key role to bring such alliance together into a reality. And only Russia can serve as the core of the Alliance, around which the other members must revolve. How so? ...

Mar 12-2004

Can America Maintain Its Position of Global Dominance?

America 's Global Dominance is Under Assault from Multiple Directions
While America Itself Is Complicit in Its Own Decline

By W. Joseph Stroupe

China is rising, economically, diplomatically and militarily to threaten a displacement of America as dominant power in Southeast Asia. Europe is increasingly choosing the course of independence from the U.S. and currently rivals American GDP, makes joint economic and strategic diplomatic agreements with American competitors Russia, China, India, Iran and others, while the U.S. looks on warily. South Korea is increasingly irritated with the U.S. military presence and diplomatic posture on the Peninsula, and looks ahead to a settlement of the Korean crisis which significantly lessens, if not eliminates, U.S. presence and influence. Japan likewise is displaying increasing irritation with the U.S. diplomatic posture and military presence in the region, and is moving rapidly in the direction of remilitarization, independence and self-assertion, making its own energy security deals with Iran and Russia over U.S. objections. Taiwan is also becoming more assertive, risking a conflagration with China, and obliging the U.S. to make diplomatic moves toward China, away from longtime ally Taiwan in an effort to avoid the conflagration, in which the U.S. would be the prime geopolitical loser. Russia, in the face of proliferating American military presence throughout the traditional Russian sphere of influence, is becoming much more assertive, charting a course often directly opposed to the U.S. Russia is making strategic economic (oil / gas) agreements and conducting weapons sales in every strategic region of the world, while the U.S. looks on guardedly at Russian political and diplomatic influence on the rise. The majority of the oil states of the Middle East have adopted a decidedly anti-American stance in the aftermath of the Iraq invasion, and consequently U.S. influence in the region is suffering a very significant setback. In the last year collective international opposition to the U.S. has been consolidating at the U.N. and within the Security Council, marginalizing and isolating the U.S. internationally. And the continuing trends are mostly against the U.S. and are even picking up steam in that direction. In the face of all these regional and global developments, can the U.S. maintain its current position of global dominance? ...

Jul 13-2004

America's Decline: Leading to Collapse?

By W. Joseph Stroupe

America's ability to lead and to order the world along the flux-lines of its own national interests has declined sharply. Washington has rapidly been turned out of its once-dominant position in such vital and influential organizations as NATO and the U.N. As a result, Washington rarely, if ever, sets the agenda in such organizations. Rather, it has been turned from Most Prominent Leader to Most Noteworthy Supplicant, pleading unsuccessfully within those organizations for action on its own terms. When, rarely, it does get action, such is not on its own terms, but rather almost completely on the terms of America's one-time allies now turned to independents, competitors and even geopolitical rivals. In a stunning reversal, occurring over a period of mere months starting in the early spring of 2003, the last superpower is struggling to reclaim its severely damaged role of global leadership and international respect and the now-lost influence which accompanied that coveted role. America is in sharp decline after over-reaching in Iraq and squandering its treasured, and vital, alliances. It has lost its former image of virtual invincibility and perpetual global dominance. Is America headed for a Soviet-style collapse? Is a "replacement" for American global dominance already arising in the power vacuum progressively being formed by the contraction of American power and influence? ...

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